The War with Iran: A Complex and Frustrating Conflict

As the war between the United States and Iran continues, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the U.S. military is facing significant challenges in achieving its objectives. Despite the administration’s claims of success, recent reports have highlighted the depletion of American weapons stockpiles, the threat Iran still poses to U.S. bases and allies in the region, and Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.

A Complex and Frustrating Conflict

According to Stacie Pettyjohn, a widely quoted analyst on U.S. defense strategy, military planning, air power, and war gaming, the U.S. military’s ability to dictate terms to Iran is increasingly limited. Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security, notes that the U.S. military is facing long-range missile shortages, prolonged deployments, and vacated regional bases.

When asked about her initial thoughts on the war, Pettyjohn explained that historically, operations that focus on using airpower to change the behavior of another state have not produced durable political outcomes. This is because many nations have a deeper interest in the situation than the U.S. does, and the asymmetry of interest is often an indication that the country is not willing to go all-in and pay the terrible costs associated with using pure brute force and deploying ground forces to achieve a goal.

The U.S. military’s stockpiles of critical munitions have been depleted, and the administration’s claims of success have been disputed by recent reporting. Pettyjohn notes that the U.S. has deep stockpiles of precision-guided weapons, but they tend to be short-range and require getting close to the target to attack it. The U.S. is also short on more exquisite systems, such as longer-range missiles, which are expensive and difficult to make.

The U.S. military’s ability to defend its Gulf allies and U.S. bases is also a concern, as is its ability to launch offensive strikes against Iran. Pettyjohn notes that the U.S. can sit back and wait, using its ground base or sea-based air defenses to protect its allies and bases, but these stockpiles are running low and are not going to be replenished in the next two to three years.

The other option is to go on the offensive and begin to pressure Iran again by hunting for its missile and drone launchers. However, this is a difficult task, as Iran has underground shelters and can move its launchers quickly. The U.S. would need to restart the air campaign at a new level, but the bases in the region have proven to be incredibly vulnerable.

The Effect of Shortages on Battlefield Strategy and Tactics

Pettyjohn notes that the shortages are having an effect on battlefield strategy and tactics, specifically in the area of airpower. The U.S. military is having to rely on its short-range fighter aircraft, which require tankers and are vulnerable to attack. The U.S. is also short on defensive interceptors, such as the Patriot missile or the THAAD interceptors, which are expensive and difficult to make.

In conclusion, the U.S. military is facing significant challenges in the war with Iran, including long-range missile shortages, prolonged deployments, and vacated regional bases. The administration’s claims of success have been disputed by recent reporting, and the U.S. military’s ability to defend its Gulf allies and U.S. bases is a concern. The U.S. would need to go on the offensive and restart the air campaign at a new level, but this is a difficult task due to the vulnerability of the bases in the region.