Ashton Jeanty Uncertainty Highlights Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers from Week 2 of the NFL Preseason
The NFL’s move towards joint practices and reduced starter participation in the preseason has resulted in fewer significant swings in Fantasy Football projections. This is likely a good thing, as preseason developments often prove to be false signals or overreactions. Despite this, there have been some notable movers in the preseason rankings, particularly those related to injuries and roster moves.
Ashton Jeanty’s Uncertainty
Ashton Jeanty’s injury has left Fantasy Football owners with a difficult decision to make. Jeanty was a borderline first-round pick before the injury, but his status for the upcoming season is uncertain. His teammates’ reaction to the injury, with the entire team getting down on a knee and remaining silent, suggests that it may be serious. However, there is no official word on the severity of the injury yet.
Jeanty’s backup, Mike Washington Jr., has looked impressive in the preseason, with 119 rush yards on 15 carries in two games. If Jeanty’s injury is season-ending, Washington would likely be a Round 5 pick or higher. For now, I would not draft Jeanty before pick No. 35 in one-QB leagues, but owners may be more aggressive in shallower leagues or if they have a high tolerance for risk.
Jayden Higgins Injury Fallout
The loss of Jayden Higgins is a significant blow to the Texans’ offense. Higgins was having a spectacular offseason, and his absence has led to a slight boost in target share for Nico Collins. Collins is now a Round 2 pick in full PPR leagues. The other wide receivers on the team, Tank Dell and Jaylin Noel, are both battling injuries, and either could be worth a pick in the final rounds of most drafts. Xavier Hutchinson is likely to be the team’s second-best receiver to start the season.
The biggest mover in my rankings was Dalton Schultz, who is now a borderline top-12 tight end worth a pick in Round 10. Schultz was second on the Texans with 106 targets last year, and that was on a team that threw 120 passes to Higgins and Christian Kirk, who is no longer on the team. If Dell or Noel don’t step up, Schultz could flirt with 120 targets and a top-six finish at tight end.
Najee Harris Signing Fallout
The acquisition of Najee Harris has made it worse for Tyrone Tracy, who has had a bad preseason. I’m not entirely sure that Tracy has a role on this team, and for now, I have dropped him outside of the first 10 rounds. Harris is worth a late-round pick, particularly in deeper leagues, but he has to get in football shape just to earn the secondary role to Cam Skattebo.
Skattebo becomes just a little riskier with this acquisition, because Harris is a coach’s back and if the veteran regains form, he could be a problem for Skattebo in both short yardage and the passing game. The safest course of action is to wait until Round 5 to draft Skattebo, but don’t be surprised if someone in your league drafts him in Round 4.
Alvin Kamara Injury Fallout
The injury to Alvin Kamara has led to a boost in Travis Etienne’s ranking. Etienne signed a big deal with the Saints, and originally, many thought that meant Kamara was leaving. When the team restructured Kamara’s deal, Etienne fell into the mid-RB2 range. Now that Kamara may miss the start of the season, I have Etienne ranked as a top-12 running back worth a pick in Round 3.
While we do expect to see Kamara early in the year, he had already lost a step, and I am very skeptical he’ll be effective enough to stay on the field coming off this injury. I now have Etienne projected for 290 touches, and he has upside well beyond that.
Other Movers
Four smaller moves I made this past week include:
- I remain the low guy on A.J. Brown, but I did move him up a few spots after his brilliant performance in team camp against Philadelphia.
- Kyle Monangai fell behind Blake Corum and out of Round 8. His knee injury isn’t supposed to last long into the season, but I don’t like that Week 1 is in question.
- D’Andre Swift remains one of my favorite picks in Round 4 and could move into Round 3 if we get a negative report on Monangai.
- Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan look ready to dominate targets in Carolina and both look like they will get an elevated slot rate.
- Dalton Kincaid has maintained his health through the preseason, and there is legitimate optimism that he plays the highest snap share of his career. That optimism pushes him into the top 12 tight ends for the first time this offseason.