Fantasy Football Running Back Tiers 2.0: Assessing Injury Risk and Upside

In the world of fantasy football, predicting the performance of running backs is a complex task. To make my tiers stand out, I base them almost exclusively on my 2026 PPR projections. However, as we move down the rankings, the value of these players becomes less about their projection and more about their upside if the guy in front of them suffers an injury.

Top-Tier Running Backs

At the top of my tiers are Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, the only two backs projected for more than 20.5 PPR Fantasy points per game. These two are arguably the best running backs in football, with supremely talented profiles, workhorse roles, and prime years ahead of them. Gibbs gets the slight edge for RB1 due to the quality of their offenses, but barring injury, I expect these two to be battling for the number one overall pick for the next three seasons.

Tier 2: The Next Tier of Running Backs

In Tier 2, we have Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey, two points clear of RB5 in my projections. While they don’t feel as insulated as Gibbs and Robinson, they still have immense upside. McCaffrey, however, has recent tightness concerns that have kept him out of practice, and age and workload concerns also affect his profile. I would currently draft James Cook and Chase Brown ahead of McCaffrey, but that’s based on risk, not projection.

Tier 3: The Middle-Tier Running Backs

De’Von Achane and James Cook are the last two running backs I have ranked in Round 1, with projections between 17 and 18 PPR FPPG. Chase Brown is just below them but closer to Cook than the tier below. All three of their profiles are quite different, with Cook having scored 32 touchdowns over the last two seasons and led the NFL in rushing last season. Achane thrives on receptions and efficiency, while Brown has elite partial seasons but hasn’t been worth a first-round pick when the 1B has been healthy.

Tier 4: The Questionable Running Backs

This is the point where the rankings and the projections diverge. Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs all project as clear RB1s between 16 and 17 FPPG in Fantasy Football but all have enormous question marks that cause me to rank them lower than their projection. For Henry, it’s Father Time’s undefeated record, and the fact that Henry lost his All-Pro center and fullback in the offseason. For Jacobs, it’s off-field concerns as well as a pesky groin injury that remain unresolved as training camp progresses. For Barkley, it’s his lackluster 2025. If Jacobs is cleared, he may be the safest of the group.

Tier 5: The Mid-Tier Running Backs

Omarion Hampton and Ashton Jeanty project for around 15 FPPG and are all guys that could be worth Round 1 picks. We expect Hampton and Jeanty to benefit from new offensive coordinators and better offensive line play. Walker has been a training camp riser with all the talk about him being a workhorse in Kansas City, but his profile is a little bit risky due to Patrick Mahomes’ history and the fact that Walker has never played a full season as a workhorse.

Tier 6: The Lower-Tier Running Backs

The Tier 6 backs project between 12.5 and 13.5 FPPG but the young guys have far more upside than that. Skattebo and Judkins are progressing well off devastating lower leg injuries, but how effective they will be remains to be seen. Hall was getting some workhorse buzz before his groin injury, and I downgraded his projection to drop him into this tier. Swift would be a top 12 back for me any weeks Monangai misses.

Tier 7: The Borderline RB2/Flex Range

We have reached the borderline RB2/flex range of the projections. These guys are projected between 11.5 and 12 FPPG, though there is certainly more upside than that. If someone wins a clear RB1 role in New England or Pittsburgh, then my projection will be way too low for that guy. While there was plenty of shuffling in this tier, and a few guys fell out of the tier, the most notable name here is Love’s. I expected him to start the year in a committee with Tyler Allgeier, then gradually become the clear lead back.

Tier 8: The Backup Running Backs

We can pretty much throw the projections out at this point. That’s exactly what you should do in drafts. For the most part, there are two groups represented here: starters I don’t trust to stay starters and handcuffs with benefits. Most of them I expect to be startable as flexes in Week 1, but not much more. If you told me someone was going to rise out of this tier in the next update, I would bet on Brooks. He has been one of the biggest draft risers at running back, and that’s not just because of Hubbard’s injury.