Counterfactual Exercise Reveals the Impact of Naturalistic Decision-Making

A recent counterfactual exercise conducted by a group of researchers aimed to gauge the impact of the Naturalistic Decision-Making (NDM) movement, which has been a significant force in shaping our understanding of decision-making processes. The exercise involved imagining a world where the NDM movement never existed and exploring the potential consequences of such a scenario.

The NDM movement, which celebrated its 40th anniversary at the 18th NDM meeting in Charlottesville, Virginia, in June 2026, has made significant contributions to the field of psychology. By examining the cognitive processes involved in decision-making, the NDM movement has provided valuable insights into how experts make decisions in high-stakes situations.

Key Findings of the Counterfactual Exercise

The counterfactual exercise revealed several potential consequences of a world without the NDM movement. These included:

• Balkanization: Without the NDM movement, practitioners in various fields would have developed their own naturalistic models of decision-making, leading to a lack of standardization and consistency in decision-making processes.
• Gap between work as imagined vs. work as done: The absence of the NDM movement would have resulted in a larger gap between the theoretical and practical aspects of decision-making, leading to a lack of support for examining work as it is actually done.
• Fatalities in high-risk domains: The counterfactual exercise suggested that without the NDM movement, there would have been more fatalities in high-risk domains such as firefighting and healthcare, due to a lack of understanding of expert decision-making processes.
• Disrespect for expertise: The exercise revealed that our understanding of expertise would have been severely limited, leading to a lack of respect for experts and their decision-making abilities.
• Cognitive dimension: The absence of the NDM movement would have resulted in less familiarity with the cognitive dimension in practitioner communities, leading to a focus on procedures rather than the cognitive processes involved in decision-making.
• Military decision-making process: Without the NDM movement, the military decision-making process in the Army would likely still be in effect, without any consideration for expertise-based rapid decisions.
• Research methods: The counterfactual exercise suggested that the academic-led embargo on field research would have been in force, making it difficult for researchers to break free from laboratory-oriented traditions and rigid experimental approaches.
• Training and design: The exercise revealed that we would not have a great understanding of how to train tacit knowledge or design systems to support it, leading to a lack of scenario/simulation-based training opportunities.
• Discoveries: The absence of the NDM movement would have resulted in fewer discoveries of macrocognitive phenomena such as sense-making, problem detection, and insight.

The counterfactual exercise has helped us appreciate the significant contributions of the NDM movement to our research and training and design approaches. By exploring the potential consequences of a world without the NDM movement, we have gained a deeper understanding of the importance of this movement in shaping our understanding of decision-making processes.

The researchers who contributed to the counterfactual exercise included Robert Hoffman, Joseph Borders, John Schmitt, Emily Newsome, Jared Peterson, Katrina Carlson, Kari Hoy, Micah Condon, and Laura Militello.