The First 48-Team World Cup: A Mixed Bag of Positives and Negatives

The decision to expand the men’s World Cup from 32 to 48 teams was made less than 12 months after Gianni Infantino succeeded Sepp Blatter as president of FIFA. The reaction to this change was mixed, with Diego Maradona stating that he was ‘delighted by Gianni’s initiative’ because it allowed each country to dream of reaching the tournament, renewing their passion for football. On the other hand, Joachim Löw, then in charge of the world champions Germany, said, ‘I don’t think it’s a good idea to dilute the sporting value … In the long term, the quality suffers.’

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The 2026 World Cup, which featured 48 teams, was a celebration of the sport’s diversity, with Africa and Asia benefiting more than other confederations when it came to greater qualifying quotas. Four debutants had their moments, with Livano Comenencia’s equaliser for Curaçao against Germany being a group-stage highlight. Cape Verde were the tournament’s biggest underdog story, even if they didn’t win a game.

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Gulf in Class: The Disparity Between Opponents

With a bigger tournament came a wider disparity between opponents in the group stage. At the last 32-team World Cup in Qatar, Brazil v Ghana was the biggest group mismatch, with a difference of 60 in their world rankings. In this tournament, there were five group games with gaps of more than 65 places. Some of these were competitive – England 0-0 Ghana, Spain 0-0 Cape Verde. But there was little chance of a shock defeat for the big guns, let alone a humiliating group exit such as those endured by the holders Spain in 2014 or Germany in 2018.

A poor Uruguay were the only major early casualty this time around. The more pedestrian group stage did at least offer star names such as Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi a chance to gain some real momentum in a memorable race for the Golden Boot.

Flawed Third-Place System: A Problem that Persists

After the drama of the 2022 group stage, where only two teams (about 6%) were officially out before the final round of fixtures, FIFA changed their plans for three-team groups for the expanded 48-team format and stuck with four-team groups, with eight third-place teams heading through to the last 32. This did not entirely bury the question of collusion between teams nor the fact that those playing later had a competitive advantage in knowing what result they needed to progress.

Knockout opponents could also change in an instant. When Riyad Mahrez put Algeria 3-2 up against Austria in the 93rd minute of the final game in Group J, it meant Algeria would go through as runners-up to play Spain in the last 32. When they conceded an equaliser in the 96th minute, it meant they would face Switzerland on the other side of the draw.

What’s Next? The Possibility of a 64-Team World Cup

FIFA president Infantino again stressed the importance of organising the World Cup ‘not just for Europe and South America’ when he dropped the hint of an expansion to 64 teams. Adding an extra 16 nations – but only 24 more games – seems like a logical next step for FIFA if it wants to do away with the third-place system and return to the top-two-go-through group format. There would at least be some jeopardy, although the disparity within the groups would be even greater.

Nations such as New Caledonia (ranked 151) and Indonesia (118) were involved in late-stage qualifying for the 2026 edition and could make it in with higher quotas. How would they fare against Spain or Argentina? And with the world’s 16 best teams all in the same pot, glamour group ties – which were already in short supply this time – would probably be a thing of the past.