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Fantasy Football Rankings 2026: Busts to Avoid According to a Model That Called Terry McLaurin’s Down Year

A computer model has identified several fantasy football busts to avoid in the 2026 season, including New York Giants receiver Malik Nabers and Bills running back James Cook.
NEWS DESK PUBLISHED: AUGUST 16, 2026
📖 3 MIN READ

Fantasy Football Rankings 2026: A Comprehensive Guide to Avoiding Busts

The 2026 NFL regular season is just around the corner, with the kickoff game scheduled for Wednesday, September 9. As the preseason comes to a close, fantasy football owners are finalizing their draft preparations. A key to success in fantasy football remains finding sleepers and rookies who outperform their average draft position (ADP) and avoiding drafting players who end up being busts.

One of the most critical factors in determining a player’s potential for success is their ADP. This year, veterans like Josh Allen, Bijan Robinson, and Ja’Marr Chase are expected to be among the top players on most fantasy football draft boards. However, to truly succeed in fantasy football, it’s essential to identify players who are undervalued and have the potential to outperform their ADP.

The Importance of Identifying Fantasy Football Sleepers

Identifying fantasy football sleepers is a crucial aspect of creating a successful fantasy football team. Sleepers are players who are undervalued and have the potential to outperform their ADP. In 2020, a computer model accurately predicted that A.J. Brown would be a sleeper, and he went on to have a breakout season. The model also correctly predicted Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous season in 2021 and C.J. Stroud’s step back in 2024.

In 2019, the model identified Derrick Henry as a sleeper, and he had a breakout season. Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara were also identified as sleepers in 2018, and they both had successful seasons. Davante Adams was another sleeper in 2017, and he had a remarkable season.

The 2026 Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid

According to a computer model, there are several fantasy football busts to avoid in the 2026 season. One of the busts is New York Giants receiver Malik Nabers, who is expected to go off the board around pick No. 33. However, the model doesn’t have him as a top-15 receiver, and players like DeVonta Smith and Nico Collins are ranked above him.

Nabers is also a risk due to his injury history. He tore his ACL last season and underwent a follow-up procedure in the spring. The Giants are expected to lean heavily on the run game under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, making Nabers a risky pick in the second or early third round.

Another bust to avoid is Bills running back James Cook, who is expected to go off the board with an ADP around No. 12 overall. However, the model ranks him as RB No. 10, behind players like Derrick Henry and Chase Brown. Cook has stacked two impressive seasons and was the RB6 last year, but he fumbled at a higher rate last season and isn’t an elite target out of the backfield. Josh Allen always looms as a touchdown vulture for Buffalo, which is why the model is leaning towards other high-end backs early.

The model also predicts that one of the first five receivers off the board in early 2026 fantasy football drafts will be a bust. This player is ranked barely inside the top 10 and is expected to have a disappointing season. You can see the full list of 2026 fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets at [insert website].

2026 Fantasy Football ADP

The ADP for the top 10 fantasy football players is as follows:

  • Jahmyr Gibbs (1.33)
  • Bijan Robinson (1.96)
  • Ja’Marr Chase (3.81)
  • Puka Nacua (4.75)
  • Jonathan Taylor (5.52)
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6.44)
  • Christian McCaffrey (6.59)
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (8.69)
  • De’Von Achane (11.32)
  • James Cook (11.87)

It’s essential to keep in mind that ADP is just one factor to consider when drafting your fantasy football team. It’s also crucial to stay up-to-date with the latest news and injuries affecting your players.

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