Intuitive Machines’ Q2 Earnings Miss Raises Concerns

Intuitive Machines, Inc. (NASDAQ:LUNR) recently reported its second-quarter earnings, which revealed a significant miss in revenue and earnings. Despite this, Stifel, a leading investment firm, has upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’, citing the company’s growing order book and diversified business.

The company reported an adjusted loss of $0.29 per share, far exceeding the $0.09 loss predicted by analysts, resulting in a negative surprise of over 200%. Revenue came in at $206.2 million, more than quadrupling from $50.3 million the previous year, but still behind the $224 million consensus. Adjusted EBITDA was a $13.8 million loss, compared to forecasts of a $2.8 million profit.

The earnings miss was attributed to a negative estimate-at-completion adjustment on the IM-4 lunar lander program, which resulted in a $14.7 million charge for mid-development payload revisions. Despite this, the company’s management remains firm on its guidance, reiterating its full-year revenue range for 2026 of $900 million to $1 billion, as well as its expectation for positive adjusted EBITDA.

Stifel’s Upgrade: A Bullish View

Stifel’s upgrade of Intuitive Machines to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ is based on the company’s growing order book and diversified business. The firm’s argument relies on backlog: Intuitive’s order book increased $707 million during the quarter, from $1.05 billion to $1.76 billion, up from $213.1 million at the end of 2025, with a book-to-bill ratio of 4.5x. More than $600 million of the increase came from three commercial geostationary satellite agreements, while a July deal covering 18 spacecraft for the Golden Dome missile-defense network highlighted the company’s expansion beyond the lunar-lander missions that initially grabbed investor interest.

Risks and Challenges Ahead

Despite the upgrade, investors should remain cautious, as the earnings miss and the negative estimate-at-completion adjustment on the IM-4 program raise concerns about the company’s ability to deliver on its guidance. Additionally, the short interest rate of 25.46% indicates serious uncertainty that profitability and execution difficulties have been resolved, and transforming a massive backlog into consistent, profitable delivery is a different challenge than simply getting contracts.

The bull case for Intuitive Machines rests on its backlog beating this quarter’s loss for a young space infrastructure company. The 4.5x book-to-bill ratio and the significantly larger order book post-2025 are signs of rising demand. Meanwhile, the diversification into commercial satellites and the Golden Dome reduces dependence on only lunar lander missions. Reaffirmed guidance, along with Stifel’s view that the EBITDA shortfall was a discrete, explainable adjustment rather than a consistent problem, points to the core trend remaining intact.